Skills Course: Judgment under Uncertainty. Decision Support through Foresight Analysis

Anmerkung: Da der Kurs in englischer Sprache stattfindet, stellen wir hier nur die englische Sprachversion zur Verfügung.

This course provides executives and decision-makers with methods and tools to take better decisions in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. Because decision-making in such a VUCA world can quickly become a costly and risky endeavor – especially in the realm of foreign and security affairs.

To lower risks in decision-making, to widen decision makers’ perspectives and to provide them with policy options, Foresight Analysis is one of the most powerful analytic methods in an analyst’s quiver. Foresight Analysis helps analysts and political advisors to undertake estimative analysis, which involves thinking systematically about the various ways the future is likely to unfold and what is most likely to determine the eventual outcome.

The objective of Foresight Analysis is to generate a solid set of scenarios that can bound the range of plausible alternative futures. Foresight Analysis is most useful when a situation is complex and the outcomes too uncertain to trust a single prediction. It has proven highly effective in helping analysts, decision makers, and policymakers contemplate multiple futures, challenge their assumptions, and anticipate surprise developments by identifying “unknown unknowns” – i.e. factors, forces, or players that one did not realize were important or influential before commencing the exercise.

To register for the skills course please visit the Hertie School’s website.