21 March 2018

European Security: What will the future hold?

European Security: What will the future hold?
© Dikobrazik, Hobopocc/ DGAP, CC BY-SA 3.0.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the destabilization of Ukraine brought back war and violent border shifts to the European continent. As the whole system of European security fell apart, fundamental assumptions – that used to guide the relations between Russia, Europe, and the US for decades – lost its validity.

To develop a common European-US approach towards this crisis, the Transatlantic Strategic Group commissioned the Bureau für Zeitgeschehen to facilitate two scenario-building workshops in Warsaw and Berlin (February 12th and 13th, 2018 and March 21st, 2018). The Transatlantic Strategy Group includes foreign and security policy experts who met at the invitation of the Center for Transatlantic Relations (CTR), the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), and the Robert Bosch Foundation.

Twenty international experts created numerous possible raw scenarios on future relations between Russia, the US as well as EU and non-EU Europe. During the second workshop in Berlin, the participants discussed the raw scenarios in-depth and raised important questions regarding gaps and overlaps, plausibility and probability, potential triggering events, and the usefulness of current regional strategies and policies to address the scenarios.

The detailed results of the scenario building are available on the Transatlantic Strategy Group’s webpage Russia and the West 2028.

Photo: Dikobrazik, Hobopocc/ DGAP, CC BY-SA 3.0.