11 December 2019
“Strategic Foresight and Conflict Analysis” for Future Diplomats
The class on “Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning” held by the Bureau für Zeitgeschehen (BfZ) has been established as an integral part of the fourteen-month preparation for future diplomats.
The scenario method sensitizes to key factors of fundamental social change. Therefore, it opens up perspectives that are of great importance for the future shaping of German foreign policy. In the one-day workshop “Strategic Foresight and Conflict Analysis” (November 21st, 2019, Berlin), the prospective diplomats developed future visions for the countries Brazil, China and Libya.
In the beginning of the workshop, the BfZ introduced the method of Strategic Foresight. Within this framework, the participants identified main stakeholders, trends and drivers for the Status Quo of each country and elaborated future scenarios in smaller groups. This analysis served to build different scenarios between best and worst case. The Brazilian working titles Civil War, Darker Shade of Green, Lula-Land and Riots in Rio give a glimpse of how the participants modelled the scenarios along highly plausible paths of development.
Photo: CC BY 2.0, Maxime Bonzi.