01 February 2019

Enabling the German Foreign Service through “Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning”

Enabling the German Foreign Service through “Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning”

The class on “Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning” held by the Bureau für Zeitgeschehen (BfZ) has been established as an integral part of the fourteen-month preparation for young diplomats.

The scenario method sensitizes to key factors of fundamental social change. Therefore, it opens up perspectives that are of great importance for the future shaping of German foreign policy. In the one-day workshop “Perspective 2030: The Arctic as a geostrategic region” (February 1st, 2019, Berlin), the prospective diplomats developed future visions for the North Polar region.

The workshop will illuminate the increasing geostrategic importance of the Arctic due to climate change: The decline of the ice surface opens up new sea trade routes and potential access to the gas and oil reserves that are presumed to be enormous. The growing interest of the major powers USA, China and Russia poses the risk of the Arctic mutating into another scene of conflict. This would not leave Europe’s security unaffected.

Photo: CC BY-NC-ND 2.0, Lennart Schneider.