10 November 2019

Strategic Foresight for South African Intelligence

Strategic Foresight for South African Intelligence

The Bureau fuer Zeitgeschehen (BfZ) trained Junior- and Senior-Analysts of the South African Intelligence Service in the method of Strategic Foresight and Szenario-Planning (October/November 2019 in Pretoria). The Focus of the three days course „Climate Change and its impact on the development, stability and security of South Africa” was the future of South Africa in the age of global warming.

In the beginning, the BfZ introduced the methods of Strategic Foresight. The analysts were instructed to identify stakeholders, trends and drivers in Africa regarding stability and security in the realm of climate change. This served to have a comprehensive view on the Status Quo in South Africa. Building up on this knowledge, the elaborated different future scenarios for South Africa in smaller groups. The plausible paths of development include muddling-through, opportunity, High-Risk as well as What-if Scenarios.

Photo: CC BY 2.0, Kandukuru Nagarjun.