Energy and Climate towards 2050 – Four Scenarios

Kunde

Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin)

SET-NAV Strategic Energy Roadmap (EU Horizon 2020 Programme)

Mission

Aiming to support decision making under uncertainty, the SET-Nav project commissioned the Bureau für Zeitgeschehen (bfZ) to develop alternative scenarios for global energy markets up to the year 2050.

Task

An expert group of representatives from science, research and the private sector develops four scenarios that consider external trends and key factors that could influence the changes in energy consumption and sources of power generation up to the year 2050. In addition to the potential opportunities and risks, the scenarios also take into account the effects of geopolitical shifts on the market price of fossil fuels as well as possible developments with regard to the success decarbonisation policies.

Results

The workshop identifies critical uncertainties (e.g. groundbreaking technological innovations) and "black swans" (events with a low probability but high impact, e.g. Fukushima nuclear disaster) that could influence the global energy system up to the year 2050. The workshop not only contributes to a better understanding of external trends and the interdependence of key factors, but also strengthens modelling and forecasting capabilities with regard to global changes in the energy sector.