Three Americas After Trump

Client

The German Marshall Fund of the United States

Europe Programm

Mission

Foreign Policy in the Dawn of Post-Trumpism

Donald Trump's election as the 45th President of the United States marks a withdrawal from the U.S. policy we used to know: Previously, the unthinkable is becoming an option in terms of both domestic and foreign policy. As a close partner of the U.S., European government must also adjust to a reality that might have changed even beyond the Trump administration.
Against this background, the GMF takes the mid-term of the Trump administration as an opportunity to strengthen German, French and Polish responsiveness with regard to unexpected directions and turns of U.S. policy. Based on observable trends, experts from across the political spectrum evaluate the implications of domestic lines of development within the U.S. The project aims to expand the scope for foreign policy in Germany, France and Poland in order to identify both reactive and proactive policy options as well as strategic risks and opportunities for the respective governments.

Task

Providing Expertise in Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning

The Bureau für Zeitgeschehen (BfZ) supports this participatory process with its methodological expertise in Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning. The process includes both the design of three highly selective scenarios ("Three Americas after Trump") which take into account the traditional currents of political thought in the U.S. as well as longer-term social trends and current developments. In three workshops, respective policy experts from Germany, France and Poland test these scenarios with regard to their robustness and develop country-specific strategies for action in certain fields (e.g., security policy, trade and monetary policy, technology and innovation, climate and energy). To capture the dawn of a post-Trump era, the scenario exercises consider a time horizon up to 2025.