The Aspen Institute Germany – Europe Program

Europes Future – Vision 2027

Foresight Process for the Strategic Orientation of the EU

In addition to a multitude of uncertainty factors, especially the COVID-19 pandemic and a changing U.S. policy have a strong influence on the strategic direction of the European Union (EU). In light of this, the Aspen Institute Germany initiated a foresight process with the Bureau für Zeitgeschehen (Bureau of Current Affairs) in the summer of 2020. The process focused on the themes of security, trade, and green recovery, and gathered 16 experts from EU member states, the Western Balkan Six, the United States and United Kingdom to develop various scenarios for the future of the EU.

To begin the process, participants completed an online survey to identify the key drivers and uncertainties that will shape Europe’s future through 2027. In the subsequent online workshops, the experts developed clear-cut scenarios on the core topics. By means of scenario backcasting, the experts developed an early warning system that enables policy makers to identify emerging risks at an early stage and to seize existing opportunities as soon as they arise.

The Bureau für Zeitgeschehen designed and facilitated the entire foresight process. A summary of the key drivers for the different scenarios as well as the indicators of the early warning system can be found in the appendix of the linked document.

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