07 September 2022

Delphi Study “Future Uncertain”

Delphi Study “Future Uncertain”

The shortage of skilled workers is noticeable in many places and trainees are desperately sought. The career prospects for young people are correspondingly diverse – but does this apply to all young people?

Unfortunately not: Despite countless unfilled apprenticeship places, according to the statistics, more than a third of those with a lower secondary school certificate (ESA) between the age of 20 and 34 remain without vocational training. Of those without a school-leaving certificate, it is even almost two-thirds. A disturbing development.

Against this background, the German Children and Youth Foundation and the Bertelsmann Foundation surveyed experts from the field of vocational education and training on the job prospects of young people with a low level of school education.

The Frankfurt-based Bureau für Zeitgeschehen (Bureau of Current Affairs) provided methodological support for this two-stage Delphi process. First, 25 semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted to formulate hypotheses on the future of the training market in 2030. These were then presented to more than 100 experts from schools and educational institutions, companies, chambers, trade unions and associations, ministries and administrations, employment agencies, science and research as well as foundations for validation and sharpening.

The results of this Delphi survey are startling and show: It will become increasingly difficult for young people with low school education to find their way in the world of work. But there are also levers to counteract such a development: a lot of potential is seen, for example, in vocational orientation and individual guidance to make transitions easier for young people.

Along four major fields of action, the Bertelsmann Foundation and the German Children and Youth Foundation show how the integration of low-skilled young people can succeed despite increasing demands (> Download, in German only):

1. skills promotion and recognition for young people with no more than a first general school certificate

2. individual career orientation from school to vocational training

3. flexible and attractive training (and access) pathways for young people with no more than a first general school certificate

4. bundling of responsibilities and joint assumption of responsibility at the transition from school to training.

On 8 November 2022, the Bertelsmann Stiftung and the German Children and Youth Foundation will present the results at a web conference and invite representatives from academia and practice to comment on them. The web conference will take place from 11:00 to 12:30. If you would like to participate, please send an email to chance-ausbildung@bertelsmann-stiftung.de.

On public broadcast ("Deutschlandfunk", in German only): „Bertelsmann-Studie: Geringe Schulbildung – geringe Beschäftigungschancen“ (September 6, 2022 / 04:17)